The East Africa PC market – comprising Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Uganda – declined -8.6% year on year in Q4 2016, according to the latest figures compiled by International Data Corporation (IDC).
The global technology research and consulting services firm says shipments for the quarter fell to 113,303 units as a combination of political, monetary, and economic factors inhibited the PC market's performance.
"East Africa's biggest PC market, Kenya, continues to be hampered by political uncertainty in the build up to general elections scheduled for August 2017, while the government's introduction of monetary policy changes has tightened access to credit," says Kirui Andrew, a research analyst for systems and infrastructure solutions at IDC East Africa. "The region is also coming under mounting pressure from the influx of gray imports from the UAE.
These imported PCs often evade VAT, particularly in Kenya and Tanzania, making them a cheaper alternative that local channel partners simply cannot compete with."
IDC's data shows that commercial PC shipments in East Africa fell -9.1% year on year in Q4 2016, due mainly to reduced investments by small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs). Meanwhile, the consumer segment saw shipments fall -7.5% over the same period, in part due to the aforementioned competition from gray imports.
In terms of the overall PC vendor landscape, Dell overtook HP Inc. in Q4 2016 to become the region's leading PC supplier with 30.1% unit share. Second-placed HP Inc. saw its share fall to 22.3%, while Lenovo remained in third position with 19.6% share of the market.
Looking at Kenya in isolation, PC shipments declined -16.6% year on year in Q4 2016, primarily due to weaker consumer spending and a reduction in commercial sector investments. Monetary policy changes implemented by the Kenyan government have made it more difficult for SMBs to access financial services, leading to a more cautious approach to investing in PC hardware.
Conversely, the Kenyan tablet market saw explosive year-on-year growth of 230.5% in Q4 2016 to total 149,906 units, although much of this growth stems from purchases for the government's Digital Literacy Program, which is scheduled to end in H1 2017.
Excluding the education sector initiative, consumer spending on tablets in Kenya fell -11.3% year on year in Q4 2016, primarily due to high inflation. Positivo BGH and JP SA Couto, the main vendors for the Digital Literacy Program, led Kenya's overall tablet market in Q4 2016 with shares of 37.4% and 36.7%, respectively. Samsung placed third with 6.1%.
In Ethiopia, there was encouraging PC growth of 18.0% year on year in Q4 2016, despite ongoing political instability. One driver of this growth was a major commercial deal secured by Lenovo. Ethiopia continues to see double-digit annual economic growth, propelling increased investment in the commercial space. Dell, Ethiopia's leading PC vendor, has boosted its marketing, leading to impressive results in the consumer segment.
Elsewhere, the Tanzanian PC market suffered the region's biggest year-on-year decline in Q4 2016, with shipments falling -29.0% following the introduction of strict government public spending cuts. There was better news in Uganda, however, as a recovering economy and improved political stability saw PC shipments increase 12.5% year on year.
Looking ahead, IDC expects the East Africa PC market to see marginal growth in 2017, with a year-on-year increase in shipments of 2.0% forecast for the year as a whole.