Nigeria, which produces some of the easiest-to-refine crude that typically commands a premium, has 30 or more unsold April-loading cargoes, traders say, equal to 30 million barrels or 30 percent of daily world demand.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) last week put the number as high as 50.
Globally, the oil market has lost around half its value this month as the coronavirus has led to a collapse its demand.
At the same time, supply is growing as major producers are pumping flat out to gain market share after Moscow refused to back deeper production cuts at a meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its OPEC+ allies.
Demand has dropped as nations take unprecedented measures to limit the spread of the virus, cutting fuel demand. A lack of options for storage, as well as rising freight costs have also deterred buyers.
“It’s a very large overhang,” said a trader of Nigerian crude, who asked not to be named.
“It can be the best price and margin in the world, but there is no storage for crude and product as demand collapses and shipping cost is going through the roof.”
One trader expected differentials to go lower. Nigeria’s largest crude stream, Qua Iboe, valued at a premium of $3.00 a barrel to benchmark dated Brent in December, was offered at dated Brent minus 70 cents this week, two traders said.
That would be the lowest in many years. Qua Iboe BFO-QUA was last valued at parity with dated Brent in 2005, according to Refinitiv Eikon data.
The May loading programmes for Nigerian crude will emerge in the coming days and add another 50 cargoes or 50 million barrels to the already ample supplies.
Given the overhang, traders predict Nigeria will cut its official selling prices (OSPs) for April crude, which are expected imminently.
There is no sign of companies in Nigeria, Angola or the North Sea restraining production because of lower demand – if anything, they are maximising output to try to raise cash, trade sources say.
“At $30 a barrel they just want money,” one said.
Parent company Volkswagen said on Tuesday it would be ceasing output at plants across Europe as the pandemic hits sales and disrupts supply chains, but Bentley’s northern English site in Crewe has continued operations so far.
The luxury brand, which makes around 11,000 vehicles each year and employs roughly 4,500 people, said the move was to protect the health of its workforce and due to accelerating constraints on activity and declining demand in some markets.
The factory should reopen on April 20, the firm’s boss Adrian Hallmark told Reuters, just as the firm had returned to profitability last year after a difficult 2018.
“We were all set up for a gangbusters 2020, the first two months of the year have been very strong … and then the coronavirus hits us,” he said.
“Any ideas of glory and big profits that we had have been tempered significantly but having said that, we really don’t know how it’s going to play out.”
The brand said it expected to see a reduction in sales in every market where the coronavirus is taking hold, and in China demand was down 50% against expectations last month but in March was returning to the expected level.
The British government has asked manufacturers if they could help with the design and production of ventilators.
“It’s been a very high level question… and the question was: we’ve got 1,000 engineers – could we dedicate a number of them with requisite skills and experience to be able to help to do some of the development work and industrial engineering…?” said Hallmark.
He likened the effort to the use of Bentley’s factory to Britain’s World War Two effort by building engines for its fighter planes.
“I like to remember that in just two years, the Spitfire engine… went from 1,500 to 2,700 horsepower,” he said.
“When needs must, we can perform and I’m sure the same would be true for ventilators … if we were given the right brief and opportunity to do so.”
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is spreading across the world. For those who catch it, the vast majority will experience mild symptoms, but for a few it can cause severe disease and death. Some groups - like older people and those with pre-existing health conditions - are more vulnerable when exposed than others.
Because of this, the primary objectives in fighting the outbreak are to contain the virus and help the infected to get well again. In this context, health literacy is a valuable tool because it can affect health outcomes in multiple ways. Health literacy is the degree to which people can get, understand and use basic health information to make decisions about health issues.
A health literate society is one with a population that will be aware of the severity of the situation and is able to understand how to protect themselves, and others, through basic actions. In the case of this new virus, this includes physical distancing and washing hands. It’s also a society in which the systems and services in place can ensure clear, timely and appropriate communication.
In the current situation, well-informed individual behaviour is a key intervention alongside medical and governmental action. It’s crucial that health authorities apply health literacy principles and provide information that is easy-to-understand, easy-to-access, and barrier-free. Health literacy is vital to slowing down the spread of the virus and mitigating the impact and effects of COVID-19.
This isn’t always done well. In Europe, research has shown that health literacy is a neglected public health challenge. More than a third of the population faces difficulties in finding, understanding, evaluating and using information to manage their health.
Another challenge is fake information. Instead of real facts, people’s information channels might be dominated by fake news and fear due to the uncertainties. We’ve seen that during this pandemic – it’s not only the virus that is spreading quickly but “a wildfire of false and unverified information” on WhatsApp, Twitter, Facebook and other social media in the so called “infodemic”.
Along with more than 100 other health literacy experts, we put together a handbook on health literacy. This highlights cutting edge research, policy and practice from the field and is aimed at audiences from education, public health, health care and social science. Readers will learn about health promotion and prevention programmes for school children, patients, and the elderly. They can also learn about government and community policies that improve population health literacy.
Health literacy information must be understandable and it needs to meet the literacy needs of the people it’s directed at. People with reading difficulties, hearing and sight impairments, for example, will need different formats. They’ll need more explanation. For instance, animations help in explaining the virus, the disease, its transmission and protective measures.
Other criteria health authorities must keep in mind include:
Explain the situation transparently and clarify the overriding objectives repeatedly to prepare people for the fact that interventions and recommendations might change based on new evidence and adapt to future scenarios.
Be adaptable: information providers must be able to continuously communicate new evidence and information. Authorities should not be afraid to correct earlier messages and statements if new information is available, especially if it is contradicting yesterday’s news.
Avoid a blame game: blaming false security promises and scandalous over-interpretations of studies and figures are of little help. Rather, the aim should be to strengthen the well-informed responsibility of the individual, solidarity with particularly vulnerable population groups and targeted collaborative action.
Linked to this is the need to prepare people for a barrage of misinformation. Health literacy can apply some basic principles that ensure people get the right information, and know how to distinguish the bad.
Help people cross check the accuracy and credibility of information found on TV, radio, internet, and social media, including aggressive ads for products.
Enable people to ask questions to family members and trusted health professionals about the fake news, misinformation and harmful content and messages.
Guide people to evidence-based messaging. As the Global Working Group on Health Literacy of the International Union for Health Promotion and Education stated, “the dissemination of quality, timely and understandable information is key in slowing down transmission and avoiding overburdening the healthcare system”.
Encourage people to check the source of information (where does it come from, who is behind the information, what is the intention, why was it shared, when was it published)
Encourage people to search a second source verifying the information and to double check with family, friends, colleagues and trusted health professionals
Encourage people to think hard before sharing information and not to share anything they haven’t checked and to visit fact-checking websites. These include credible sites such as the News Literacy Project, their fake news check questionnaire and CUNY’s Graduate School of Journalism’s fake check guide.
If followed, some of the information and guidelines we’ve set out in the handbook can go a long way to building citizens’ health literacy on COVID-19 and contribute to containing the disease.
Orkan Okan, Researcher, Interdisciplinary Centre for Health Literacy Research, Bielefeld University; Kristine Sørensen, Director, Global Health Literacy Academy and Associated Guest Researcher, Freiburg University , and Melanie Messer, External Lecturer, APOLLON University of Applied Sciences
Many African countries have been recording high economic growth rates for years. However, a recent study showed that poverty on the continent has increased again. How can this be?
When it is about poverty in Africa, there are many misunderstandings. According to surveys, a large proportion of people in Europe and North America are convinced that little or nothing has been done in recent decades to combat extreme poverty on the continent. This is no surprise: stereotypes from the colonial era, memories of the terrible famines of the 1980s and current reporting on refugees easily obstruct a clear view of the living conditions of people in African countries.
In fact, the figures even suggest the opposite: there is progress - at least in the number of people who have to live on less than $1.90 (€1.76) a day. "Overall, the proportion of people in Africa living in monetary poverty has clearly declined, from 54% in 1990 to 41% in 2015," World Bank economist Luc Christiaensen said in the DW interview. The main contributors to this development were the expansion of infrastructure in rural areas, increased agricultural productivity and years of robust economic growth in most African countries.
So the trend is positive, but the whole truth is that rapid population growth has actually increased the absolute number of poor people in Africa, from 278 million to 413 million. The most important project of the UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) - the end of all kinds of poverty by the year 2030 - will therefore most likely be missed by Africa. According to World Bank estimates, 20% of all people in sub-Saharan Africa will still be living in poverty in 2030 unless the governments of Africa significantly step up their poverty reduction efforts.
But it doesn't look like that at the moment. At least this is what a recent, representative study by the pan-African research institute Afrobarometer, which is regularly questions people in more than 30 African countries about the provision of their basic needs, suggests How often did you not have enough to eat last year? How often did you not have access to clean water? The researchers summarize the results in the so-called Lived Poverty Index (LPI).
The results of the study published this month are disillusioning. According to the study, between 2014 and 2018, lived poverty rose slightly in Africa for the first time in more than a decade. In some countries - including South Africa, Niger and Uganda - it even rose considerably. Although people are still better off on average than they were some ten years ago, the figures indicate that there are deeper-seated difficulties in the fight against poverty.
For study author Robert Mattes, a political scientist at the University of Strathclyde in Scotland, the recent rise has one main reason: "Africa's democratization, which has been going on for decades, has come to a standstill," Mattes told DW. Even one well-functioning multi-party systems, such as in Zambia, Tanzania or Benin, have now come under pressure from authoritarian leaders. "This decline in democracy leads to a neglect of the needs of the rural population in particular. There are fewer incentives to take care of the things that reduce poverty," said Mattes.
Data from the study show that lived poverty is lowest where electricity networks, sewerage systems, roads and mobile phones are relatively well developed. Governments should therefore invest primarily in public infrastructure, Mattes said.
Inequality as a driver of poverty
Although the results of the Afrobarometer study match the assessments of other organizations on poverty in Africa, they also raise an apparent paradox. For years, Africa's economies have been recording some of the highest growth rates in the world, with the African average GDP rising by 4.7% per year between 2000 and 2018. Although the figures have fallen slightly in recent years, the question remains: shouldn't Africa's economic growth also be reflected in the development of poverty?
Henry Ushie of Oxfam Nigeria has an explanation for the sometimes huge discrepancy: "If we want to fight poverty, we must first fight inequality. Inequality is the biggest driver of poverty in the world." Economic growth, largely due to the sale of commodities, simply does not reach ordinary people. Inequality is particularly high in Nigeria, Africa's largest economy.
Oxfam therefore uses the so-called Commitment to Reduce Inequality Index to evaluate the efforts of governments in the fight against inequality. Among other things, it examines tax justice, investment in education and health, and gender equality. The results of a recent survey in several West African countries are sobering. "Governments in the region are not particularly committed, and unfortunately Nigeria is even ranked at the very bottom," said Ushie.
In the near future, African governments are likely to face another problem: The coronavirus, which could not only pose challenges to the health systems of African countries but is already slowing down the global economy. "The prices of oil and other commodities will fall and countries that live on the export of these commodities will have to go further into debt," said Luc Christiaensen from the World Bank. It remains to be seen whether countries that are less dependent on exports will also be affected. "In the fight against poverty, the coronavirus has thrown another obstacle in the way of African governments."
Culled from Deutsche Welle
The United States on Mar 10 granted Chinese telecom giant Huawei another 45 days to continue doing business with American companies.
The new provisional license expires on May 15. Prior to the extension, the previous license was set to expire on Apr 1.
In May, Washington said it would blacklist Huawei from the US market and from buying crucial American components.
The United States has expressed concern that Huawei equipment could contain security loopholes that allow China to spy on global communications traffic. The company has denied the accusation.
US companies and residents are essentially forced to find alternative suppliers for Huawei's telecommunications equipment and software.
US President Donald Trump's administration granted Huawei a provisional license, extended for 90 days in November and then for 45 days in February, so as not to cut off the most rural areas of the United States from the world while companies found alternative suppliers.